{"id":9738,"date":"2026-03-23T12:44:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T16:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=9738"},"modified":"2026-03-23T16:10:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T20:10:07","slug":"trumps-venezuela-solution-to-cuba-would-see-the-island-nation-returned-to-a-client-state","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=9738","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s \u2018Venezuela Solution\u2019 to Cuba Would See the Island Nation Returned to a Client State"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Cuban flag and a U.S. flag flutter on the roof of a tricycle in Havana on Jan. 30, 2026. Yamil Lage\/AFP via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The U.S. and Cuban governments have been at odds<\/a> since the conclusion of the Cuban Revolution 67 years ago. Yet despite pressure, embargoes and various CIA plots, the communist government in Havana has resisted the wishes of its very powerful neighbor separated by just 90 miles (145 kilometers) of water.<\/p>\n

From my perspective as an expert on Havana-Washington ties<\/a>, however, this moment seems different.<\/p>\n

For the first time since 1959, an American president, Donald Trump, appears on the verge of doing<\/a> what so many of his predecessors have longed to do: depose a Cuban president<\/a> and compel the Cuban government to align itself with American economic and strategic interests<\/a>.<\/p>\n

If Trump succeeds \u2013 either through military might or negotiation \u2013 then Cuba looks set to become something less than a sovereign nation and more akin to an American client state.<\/p>\n

A partnership of unequals?<\/strong><\/p>\n

At first glance, the possibility of such a change looks epic, even monumental: an end to the Cuban Revolution as we have known it.<\/p>\n

But deep in the annals of U.S.-Cuban history, there are echoes of Trump\u2019s demands.<\/p>\n

From 1898 to 1959, the American government essentially ran Cuba<\/a> as a colony within its empire.<\/p>\n

Americans repeatedly decided<\/a> who would occupy the presidential palace, while Cuban politicians protected U.S. investments<\/a> and supported U.S. supremacy<\/a> in the Caribbean. American gangsters ran the hotels<\/a> and the gambling.<\/p>\n

That relationship ended with the revolution and Fidel Castro\u2019s assumption of power<\/a>. But if Trump has his way, the future of the U.S. and Cuba will look very much like it did in the pre-Castro era: a partnership of unequals.<\/p>\n

Heightened tensions<\/strong><\/p>\n

During his first term, Trump turned away from President Barack Obama\u2019s \u201cCuban Thaw<\/a>,\u201d which had established diplomatic relations, eased travel restrictions and raised hopes of an end to the decades-old U.S. embargo.<\/p>\n

In place of engagement with the Cuban government, Trump strengthened the embargo<\/a>, all but closed the U.S. Embassy<\/a> in Havana and further restricted<\/a> travel by American citizens to the island.<\/p>\n

Trump also returned Cuba to the State Department\u2019s list of nations<\/a> that support terrorism, where it resides today.<\/p>\n

Now, one year into his second term, Trump is using coercion backed with a tacit military threat to increase pressure on the Cuban government.<\/p>\n

On Jan. 3, 2026, U.S. forces, seized Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a> and his wife, bringing them to New York to stand trial.<\/p>\n

During the raid, U.S. forces killed between 75 and 100 Venezuelans<\/a> and a coterie of Cubans<\/a> providing security to Maduro.<\/p>\n

Venezuela was Cuba\u2019s closest ally<\/a>, providing the island with oil at vastly reduced prices<\/a> in exchange for doctors<\/a> and advisers<\/a> for Venezuela\u2019s security and intelligence services.<\/p>\n