{"id":9353,"date":"2025-03-31T12:21:31","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T16:21:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=9353"},"modified":"2025-03-31T12:21:31","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T16:21:31","slug":"mind-the-seismic-gap-understanding-earthquake-types-in-guerrero-mexico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=9353","title":{"rendered":"Mind the Seismic Gap: Understanding Earthquake Types in Guerrero, Mexico"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Guerrero, Mexico is an active site with several recent major earthquakes, but also a small area called the \u2018Guerrero seismic gap\u2019 (pictured) where no earthquakes have occurred for more than a century. Combined with the fact that it is also an actively studied area, which increases the availability of data, Kobe University geophysicists around SUENAGA Nobuaki decided to see if their simulations could explain the different types of earthquakes occurring there. \u00a9 Modified from Alejandro Linares Garcia via Wikipedia (https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:ViewPuertoVicenteGuerrero2.JPG) (CC BY-SA)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Plate temperature and water release can explain the occurrence of different types of earthquakes in Guerrera, Mexico. The Kobe University simulation study<\/a> also showed that the shape of the Cocos Plate is responsible for a gap where earthquakes haven\u2019t occurred for more than a century. The results are important for accurate earthquake prediction models in the region.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Where one tectonic plate is pushed down by another, the resulting stress is released in various tectonic events. There are catastrophic megathrust earthquakes, unnoticeable \u201cslow slip events,\u201d and continuous low-frequency \u201ctectonic tremors,\u201d and knowing which occurs under which conditions is essential to predicting earthquake probabilities and thus preparing for disasters. Kobe University geophysicist SUENAGA Nobuaki says: \u201cWe are especially interested in gaps where earthquakes are less likely to occur, because we assume that there is some difference in physical conditions at the plate interface.\u201d Being a specialist in three-dimensional computer simulations to understand the relationship between earthquakes, the temperature at the interface between the plates, and the role of water produced when rocks are transformed under great heat and pressure, Suenaga wanted to apply his experience to finding out what conditions create these distribution patterns.<\/p>\n

His team also includes the Colombian research assistant Erika Moreno, who experienced a devastating earthquake in 1999 which also destroyed her family\u2019s house. \u201cI did not understand what was happening around me and so I decided to study Earth sciences to add to our knowledge about the nature of earthquakes,\u201d she says, also mentioning that her studies led her from her home country via the National Autonomous University of Mexico to Kobe University for their pioneering research on computational modeling of earthquake mechanism.<\/p>\n

Tectonic map of southern Mexico. The area surrounded by the white frame represents the model region for numerical simulation in this study, including the Guerrero seismic gap.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Suenaga\u2019s team thus focused on studying the Guerrero region of Mexico, explaining: \u201cIn this region there is a gap where no major earthquake has occurred in over a century, and the risk of one occurring in the near future is high and the expected damage is large. So we thought that the area is important.\u201d However, computer models need to be verified by actual measurements, and the data usually used for this is not available in that area. \u201cWe introduced a new indicator that uses data obtained by ships, aircraft, satellites etc., and this made it possible to evaluate our model,\u201d explains the Kobe University researcher.<\/p>\n

His team published their results in the journal Scientific Reports<\/em>, reporting three main findings. First, they were able to show that the temperature at the interface between the plates is a good predictor of the type of earthquake. Second, the seismic gap is caused by the specific shape of the plate in that area, which causes temperatures there to be lower than in the surrounding area. And third, water released from the transformation of the rock can explain the occurrence of slow slip events and tectonic tremors. \u201cThis study is the first to estimate the specific amount and location of that water and it revealed that the increased pore pressure from the water could reduce the stress between the plates, allowing them to slip more effectively. Thus, the Guerrero seismic gap can release strain energy through slow slip events,\u201d says Suenaga. Simply put, this area is better lubricated.<\/p>\n

However, other studies showed that slow slip events likely don\u2019t release the stress in all parts, and in particular not in shallow parts of the plate, which is where megathrust earthquakes causing catastrophic damage occur. Suenaga explains, \u201cSlow slip events are often seen as precursors of huge earthquakes and so it is important to understand the mechanism behind low slip events.\u201d Moreno adds, \u201cOur work is crucial because studying the way plates are pushed underneath others and the processes that occur as a consequence provides insights into the distribution of volcanism and the locations of earthquakes.\u201d<\/p>\n

One goal for this work is to help authorities to make better estimates of earthquake risks and thus improve preparedness. But Suenaga wants to generalize the results to other regions. He explains: \u201cSince the tectonic background and underground structure are completely different depending on the region, it is very difficult to construct a single physical model that can explain earthquake phenomena everywhere. However, we hope to get closer to a universal numerical model by continuing to build models for various subduction zones and deepening our understanding of the physics of earthquake occurrence and modeling know-how.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Plate temperature and water release can explain the occurrence of different types of earthquakes in Guerrera, Mexico. The Kobe University simulation study also showed that the shape of the Cocos Plate is responsible for a gap where earthquakes haven\u2019t occurred for more than a century. The results are important for accurate earthquake prediction models in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":9354,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/media.springernature.com\/full\/springer-static\/image\/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-025-91257-9\/MediaObjects\/41598_2025_91257_Fig1_HTML.png?as=webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[185],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy-infrastructure"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9353"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9353\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9355,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9353\/revisions\/9355"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9354"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}