{"id":9304,"date":"2025-03-07T11:59:38","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T16:59:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=9304"},"modified":"2025-03-07T11:59:38","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T16:59:38","slug":"violent-crime-is-indeed-a-root-cause-of-migration-according-to-new-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=9304","title":{"rendered":"Violent Crime Is Indeed a Root Cause of Migration, According to New Study"},"content":{"rendered":"

Salvadoran emigration dropped following that country\u2019s roundup of suspected gang members, according to researchers with The Bush School of Government and Public Service<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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When El Salvador President Nayib Bukele implemented a controversial crime crackdown three years ago, he inadvertently helped answer one of the key questions in U.S. immigration policy: How much do crime and violence really drive Central American emigration to the United States?<\/p>\n

Quite a bit, according to a new study from the Bush School\u2019s Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy<\/a>. The study found that the crackdown, which significantly reduced killings in El Salvador, also reduced the number of apprehensions\/expulsions at the U.S. border by 45% to 67%. Simply put, a country with less violent crime produced fewer migrants. The research was published in the Journal of Development Economics<\/em><\/a>, the field\u2019s leading publication.<\/p>\n

The Mosbacher Institute also recently published a companion piece in The Takeaway<\/em><\/a>, a series of articles that translate Mosbacher research for the general public.<\/p>\n

Previous research suggested that safety concerns were a key contributor to Central American emigration. But definitive conclusions were difficult to reach because safety considerations were usually entangled with the prospect of migrants seeking jobs and material prosperity. Bukele removed that hurdle when he ordered a roundup of suspected gang members. The dramatic step did not change economic conditions in El Salvador, leaving the corresponding drop in crime as the only explanation for the drop in migration, according to the study.<\/p>\n

The authors say they are not endorsing such crackdowns. Bukele\u2019s order drew international condemnation for allegedly trampling civil liberties with steps such as indiscriminately jailing people without due process. Countering organized crime is important, according to the authors, but such efforts should respect human rights.<\/p>\n

\u201cMigration and organized crime are common challenges that demand regional collaboration, including revising the restrictive provisions of U.S. trade agreements with the region,\u201d said Raymond Robertson, one of the study authors and director of the Mosbacher Institute. <\/p>\n

KILLING SPREE, MASS INCARCERATION<\/strong><\/p>\n

Immigration is an issue woven into the fabric of the United States. It is perhaps the most potent political question not only here but in many industrialized nations wrestling with questions of identity, opportunity, justice and security. There were more than 280 million international migrants worldwide in 2020, according to the Mosbacher study: 86 million in Europe and 50 million in the United States. U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows that more than 2 million border encounters happened annually from 2021 to 2023, most of them along the southwestern border of the United States.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe \u2018border crisis\u2019 brought migration to the forefront of (U.S.) policy debates, was a leading issue in the 2024 election, and motivated a search for the \u2018root causes\u2019,\u201d according to the study.<\/p>\n

Many assumed that violent crime plays a part. A few studies suggested as much, though on a limited basis. One study<\/a> linked rising homicides in Central American countries to more arrests of unaccompanied minors at the U.S. border. Another study<\/a> found that a 2012-13 gang truce in El Salvador, which reduced homicides 53%, also reduced the probability of Salvadoran migration to the United States. Beyond those studies, \u201cSeparating the contributions of economic factors and security concerns is difficult because they are often conflated and there are few \u2018natural experiments\u2019 that only affect one and not the other,\u201d according to the Mosbacher study. It presents a broader, clearer picture by examining the aftermath of Bukele\u2019s \u201cstate of exception\u201d declaration in March 2022.<\/p>\n

Bukele, elected in 2019, had already enacted a violence-reduction plan that increased security forces and prison sanctions while also introducing social programs intended to hinder gang recruitment by aiding vulnerable populations. Then came a March 2022 killing spree. It left 87 dead over three days. In response, \u201csecurity forces arrested most, if not all, of those suspected of being connected to gangs or organized crime,\u201d an estimated 75,163 people, according to The Takeaway article accompanying the study. Following Bukele\u2019s declaration, homicide rates in El Salvador dropped from 18 per 100,000 people in 2021 to 2.4 per 100,000 in 2023, \u201cone of the lowest levels in recent history.\u201d<\/p>\n

The drop in homicides corresponded with the drop in migration to the U.S. border, according to the study.<\/p>\n

POLICY IMPLICATIONS<\/strong><\/p>\n

U.S. presidential administrations have taken notably different approaches to handling the challenges of immigration. In 2021, former President Joe Biden\u2019s administration focused on reducing migration by improving economic conditions in Central American countries. The general premise was that more opportunities and better jobs would result in more Central Americans choosing not to risk the arduous, dangerous multi-country trek to the United States. More recently, President Donald Trump\u2019s administration has focused on punishing Latin American drug cartels and increasing deportations. The Trump administration has also reportedly agreed to a deal to pay El Salvador to house migrants and imprisoned U.S. citizens<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Mosbacher Institute researchers are recommending a multipronged approach to Central American migration. They suggest a policy mix \u201cthat balances security measures with economic and social reforms designed to help communities thrive.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Takeaway article proposes five general steps:<\/p>\n