{"id":8768,"date":"2024-08-22T13:18:18","date_gmt":"2024-08-22T17:18:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=8768"},"modified":"2024-08-22T13:18:18","modified_gmt":"2024-08-22T17:18:18","slug":"latin-american-effort-to-mediate-venezuela-standoff-loses-steam-as-maduro-consolidates-rule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=8768","title":{"rendered":"Latin American Effort to Mediate Venezuela Standoff Loses Steam as Maduro Consolidates Rule"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/dims.apnews.com\/dims4\/default\/d8209ef\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/4115x2744+0+0\/resize\/1440x960!\/format\/webp\/quality\/90\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.apnews.com%2F03%2Faf%2Fcc23c2adc705d422a754a9488ef9%2F364194f2ab2249c8b3a8016500262070\" width=\"1440\" height=\"960\"><\/p>\n<p>It was a rare diplomatic gamble when the three leaders of Latin America\u2019s largest democracies&nbsp;<span class=\"LinkEnhancement\"><a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-gonzalez-machado-39c4b72fe14c34ee63a5b7adc21a9bf9\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\">inserted themselves<\/a><\/span>&nbsp;into the high-stakes standoff between Venezuela\u2019s Nicolas Maduro and his opponents over who won the country\u2019s presidential election.<\/p>\n<p>Dubbed the three amigos \u2014 all dyed-in-the-wool leftists who have been friendly with Maduro \u2014 the presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico broke from decades of hands-off diplomacy toward Venezuela and their own reluctance to meddle in a neighbor\u2019s sovereign affairs in a region where U.S. military interventions during the Cold War still generate resentment.<\/p>\n<p>But some experts say the&nbsp;<span class=\"LinkEnhancement\"><a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/brazil-venezuela-lula-maduro-elections-7f75e9f4eac2208772d639a3b9fb5793\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\">peacemaking effort<\/a><\/span>&nbsp;is losing steam before barely getting off the ground.<\/p>\n<p>They cite misgivings by Mexico\u2019s outgoing president, divisions among Latin America\u2019s left and pressure from the U.S. on Maduro to recognize defeat and step aside. The main outcome so far, they say, has been to grant Maduro precious time to consolidate his rule and&nbsp;<span class=\"LinkEnhancement\"><a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/venezuela-crackdown-maduro-opposition-disputed-election-f59c93361b9b17e83c3af97ce0c7f275\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\">jail more opponents<\/a><\/span>&nbsp;since the July 28 vote.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe mediation effort is cautious, focusing on avoiding conflict and a new migration wave rather than defending democracy,\u201d said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, a Venezuelan born analyst and founder of Aurora Macro Strategies, a geopolitical risk consulting firm based in New York.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s hard to be optimistic,\u201d adds Michael Shifter, the former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.<\/p>\n<div class=\"Infobox\" data-module=\"\" data-gtm-region=\"Over 50 countries go to the polls in 2024 The year will test even the most robust democracies. Read more on what's to come here. Take a look at the 25 places where a change in leadership could resonate around the world. Keep track of the latest AP elections coverage from around the world here.\" data-align-center=\"\" data-module-number=\"2\" data-main-module-number=\"2\">\n<div class=\"Infobox-items RichTextBody\">\n<p>The diplomatic effort by Brazil\u2019s Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, Mexico\u2019s Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador and Colombia\u2019s Gustavo Petro to resolve the dispute over the election outcome was initially heralded by many in Venezuela\u2019s opposition and the U.S., which was happy to leave that political minefield to others.<\/p>\n<p>Lula, who dispatched a close aide to Caracas to monitor the vote, refused to recognize Maduro\u2019s claim of victory. Joined by L\u00f3pez Obrador and Petro, he also called on Venezuelan authorities to publish detailed tallies of election results \u2014 as it has traditionally \u2014 to back their claim that Maduro won.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf there are doubts &#8230; then count the votes,\u201d L\u00f3pez Obrador said in his first remarks after the election.<\/p>\n<p>Opposition politicians have said they obtained&nbsp;<span class=\"LinkEnhancement\"><a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/venezuela-maduro-machado-biden-gonzalez-a625eb01979bc9cf5570d03242f198b1\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\">more than 80% of the country\u2019s vote<\/a><\/span>&nbsp;tally sheets and that they show challenger Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez winning by a two-to-one margin, which has prompted the U.S. and dozens of other countries to say that Gonz\u00e1lez garnered the most votes.<\/p>\n<p>Brazil, Mexico and Colombia have not joined those countries, trying instead to get Maduro to release the disaggregated results. But as weeks have passed, and as the Venezuelan government\u2019s crackdown on the opposition has continued, the trio has lost some of its mojo. A long-discussed phone call between the presidents and Maduro has yet to take place.<\/p>\n<p>Recently Lopez Obrador suggested he would take a step back from the effort to await the results of an&nbsp;<span class=\"LinkEnhancement\"><a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/colombia-president-maduro-vote-count-venezuela-election-00d399b74300b6d1ed010bed9539a166\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\">audit being carried out by Venezuela\u2019s supreme court<\/a><\/span>, which is packed with Maduro loyalists and has almost never ruled against the government.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Lula angered many in the opposition by saying he favors a do-over of the election.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t know really how committed they are to a transition to democracy,\u201d said Javier Corrales, a professor of Latin American politics at Amherst College in Massachusetts. \u201cMaybe in private circles they are putting pressure on Maduro to step down but in their public statements there\u2019s no evidence that this is a priority. They mostly talk about stability and avoiding bloodshed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. has been all too willing to sit on the sideline after years of failed efforts by the Trump administration to oust Maduro. The Biden administration, while condemning the apparent steal, hasn\u2019t retaliated or gone as far as the opposition in recognizing Gonz\u00e1lez as president-elect. Instead, it prefers to give political space to the diplomatic dealmaking, especially since the next presidential term doesn\u2019t start until January.<\/p>\n<p>However, behind the scenes, it has been sharing its views with the trio, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently speaking to his Mexican counterpart, Alicia B\u00e1rcena, while President Joe Biden and Canada\u2019s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau both dialed up Lula.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike Venezuela\u2019s neighbors, the U.S. has real leverage over Maduro that could make it impossible for him to&nbsp;<span class=\"LinkEnhancement\"><a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/maduro-venezuela-election-chavez-president-7ad0f6b14fa42224b8c2be2f09520d05\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\">effectively govern<\/a><\/span>&nbsp;for the next six years. That includes debilitating oil sanctions that have all but shut the OPEC nation out of Western markets and are contributing to shortages and an ongoing economic crisis. There\u2019s also a $15 million bounty for Maduro\u2019s arrest to face drug trafficking charges in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>Any exit plan for Maduro would likely involve some sort of amnesty for the president and dozens of others who are accused of corruption, drug trafficking and human rights abuses.<\/p>\n<p>Thomas Traumann, a Brazilian political consultant, said that Lula and his partners emerged as \u201cthe adults in the room\u201d after a string of U.S. policy failures.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhere have U.S. sanctions led us?\u201d said Traumann, who was previously the spokesman for Dilma Rousseff, a member of Lula\u2019s Workers\u2019 Party and president from 2011 to 2016. \u201cOver the past 20 years, the U.S. has tried sanctions, freezing foreign reserves, recognizing a puppet president and even supporting a military coup in 2021 \u2014 all of which have failed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Still, he said it\u2019s unrealistic for any foreign country \u2014 the U.S. or otherwise \u2014 to play more than a supporting role so long as Maduro has the support of the armed forces and powerful allies like Russia and China.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis plan may not succeed \u2014 not because Lula and Petro are na\u00efve or aren\u2019t applying enough pressure on Maduro, but because there is little they can do to enforce it,\u201d he said. \u201cAny autocrat can survive international sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8211; Joshua Goodman, AP News<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It was a rare diplomatic gamble when the three leaders of Latin America\u2019s largest democracies&nbsp;inserted themselves&nbsp;into the high-stakes standoff between Venezuela\u2019s Nicolas Maduro and his opponents over who won the country\u2019s presidential election. Dubbed the three amigos \u2014 all dyed-in-the-wool leftists who have been friendly with Maduro \u2014 the presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":8770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/dims.apnews.com\/dims4\/default\/d8209ef\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/4115x2744+0+0\/resize\/1440x960!\/format\/webp\/quality\/90\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.apnews.com%2F03%2Faf%2Fcc23c2adc705d422a754a9488ef9%2F364194f2ab2249c8b3a8016500262070","fifu_image_alt":"Latin American Effort to Mediate Venezuela Standoff Loses Steam as Maduro Consolidates Rule","footnotes":""},"categories":[192],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polity-governance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8768"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8768\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8771,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8768\/revisions\/8771"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}