{"id":8002,"date":"2022-12-12T03:08:04","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T08:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=8002"},"modified":"2022-12-12T03:08:04","modified_gmt":"2022-12-12T08:08:04","slug":"amid-coup-countercoup-claims-what-really-went-down-in-peru-and-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=8002","title":{"rendered":"Amid Coup, Countercoup Claims \u2013 What Really Went Down in Peru and Why?"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure style=\"width: 5983px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499704\/original\/file-20221208-13-5137xh.jpg\" width=\"5983\" height=\"3988\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Clashes on the streets of Peru. Ernesto Benavides\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><em>Peru has a new president following <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-latin-america-63895505\">the ouster of former leader Pedro Castillo<\/a> at the hands of the country\u2019s Congress.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>His removal followed an attempt by Castillo to cling to power by dissolving a Congress intent on impeaching him. Castillo\u2019s opponents accused him of attempting a coup \u2013 a charge his supporters similarly levied in regards to his removal from office. The day ended with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/perus-president-detained-by-security-forces-national-police-tweet-2022-12-07\/\">former president in detention<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The Conversation asked Eduardo Gamarra, an <a href=\"https:\/\/pir.fiu.edu\/people\/faculty-a-z\/eduardo-gamarra1\/eduardo-gamarra.html\">expert on Latin American politics at Florida International University<\/a>, to explain the wider context of Peru\u2019s political crisis \u2013 and what could happen next.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Can you talk us through the events of Dec. 7, 2022?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In a nutshell, President Pedro Castillo thought he was going to be impeached and tried to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/12\/07\/world\/americas\/peru-pedro-castillo-coup.html\">move ahead of lawmakers by closing down Congress<\/a>. He said he intended to rule by decree and reform the country\u2019s constitutional court and judiciary. In effect, he challenged the armed forces to choose sides.<\/p>\n<p>But the plan backfired. He announced that he was closing Congress, but Congress refused to be closed down. Instead, lawmakers went ahead with a previously planned impeachment trial and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/perus-congress-votes-remove-president-castillo-impeachment-trial-2022-12-07\/\">overwhelmingly voted to remove him from power<\/a>. The military for its part rejected Castillo\u2019s ploy.<\/p>\n<p>Castillo was later arrested on a charge of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/us-news\/peru-swears-first-female-president-constitutional-crisis-rcna60656\">violating a constitutional order<\/a>. He was replaced by former Vice President Dina Boluarte, who was sworn in as president. Peru\u2019s first female leader intends to serve until 2026.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499798\/original\/file-20221208-12769-ws570q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499798\/original\/file-20221208-12769-ws570q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499798\/original\/file-20221208-12769-ws570q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499798\/original\/file-20221208-12769-ws570q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499798\/original\/file-20221208-12769-ws570q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499798\/original\/file-20221208-12769-ws570q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499798\/original\/file-20221208-12769-ws570q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" alt=\"A man in blue is seen inside a car with a police officer next to him in uniform\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Former President Pedro Castillo was taken into custody. Renato Pajuelo\/AFP via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>\n<p>Behind all this was a competition of legitimacy between Congress and the president \u2013 and Congress won.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How did it come to such a crisis point?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>That isn\u2019t easy to explain, and the wider background and political system needs to be understood first.<\/p>\n<p>Peru has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2022\/12\/07\/1141372595\/peru-s-president-dissolves-congress-and-imposes-a-curfew\">a hybrid system<\/a>, in which both parliament and the presidency split power and can act against each other. So constitutionally, the president can dismiss Congress and call for new elections, and, at the same time, Congress can impeach and remove the president. But there is some ambiguity, and there is a case to say Castillo exceeded his constitutional powers in this instance.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"f57pV\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/f57pV\/1\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The point of having such a system is that when there is a crisis of government, it doesn\u2019t necessarily mean there is a crisis of state. The prime minister can resign as head of a government, yet the president can remain in place for stability.<\/p>\n<p>But in reality, it encourages instability. Congress has forced a president from office before. President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/11\/10\/933334195\/in-midst-of-pandemic-crisis-perus-legislature-impeaches-the-nations-president\">Mart\u00edn Vizcarra was removed from power<\/a> in a 2020 impeachment. In fact, Peru has now had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/12\/07\/americas\/peru-president-castillo-congress-dissolves-intl\/index.html\">six presidents in the last five years<\/a>. There have also been instances in the past of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/the_americas\/perus-president-dissolved-congress-then-congress-suspended-the-president\/2019\/10\/01\/7b404cd6-e451-11e9-b0a6-3d03721b85ef_story.html\">Peruvian presidents dissolving Congress<\/a>. Famously, President Alberto Fujimori <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/self-coup-rocked-peru-197280\">did this in 1992<\/a> in what was undoubtedly a coup d&#8217;\u00e9tat.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, what you have seen in Peru is a dismantling of the traditional party system. More than a dozen parties are now represented in Congress, which makes it hard for any one party to hold a majority.<\/p>\n<p>In the case of Castillo, only around 15 members of Congress were from his party \u2013 a tiny minority in the 130-seat assembly. That made it hard for Castillo to form a strong base to push forward his agenda or protect him from impeachment proceedings.<\/p>\n<p>Making matters of governance worse is the fact that there has been a <a href=\"https:\/\/freedomhouse.org\/country\/peru\/freedom-world\/2021\">collapse in trust<\/a> for Peru\u2019s political institutions and parties.<\/p>\n<p>This all leads to an atomized political system \u2013 the old parties have disappeared, but no strong new parties have emerged. In this void have been individuals who have driven the political agenda, with no central force to govern cohesively.<\/p>\n<p>Thrown into this is the political polarization that has affected much of the region, with the country increasingly split between the left and the right.<\/p>\n<p>But it gets worse. Not only is the country polarized politically, it is split by ethnicity, region and class.<\/p>\n<p><strong>And this contributed to Castillo\u2019s downfall?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yes. From the beginning of his term the leftist former teacher was attacked by his many opponents in Congress for a variety of alleged grievances. He has governed over a worsening economy and faces a <a href=\"https:\/\/english.elpais.com\/international\/2022-10-12\/president-pedro-castillo-of-peru-faces-new-corruption-accusation.html\">slew of corruption charges<\/a>. Indeed, Castillo had already survived two attempts to impeach him before the events of Dec. 7, 2022 \u2013 and he only came to power in July 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Recently, he was <a href=\"https:\/\/atalayar.com\/en\/content\/perus-congress-calls-pedro-castillo-be-prosecuted-treason\">accused of treason<\/a> after suggesting in a CNN interview that he would consider giving landlocked Bolivia access to the Pacific Ocean. Suggesting that an apparent off-the-cuff comment amounted to treason might be pushing it. But on top of that, there were serious accusations of corruption against the president. By my count, there were five serious attempts by Congress to bring about malfeasance trials against Castillo.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How has he responded?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Castillo initially was hoping to get the backing of the Organization of American States (OAS) and tried to convince the regional body, which is tasked with, among other things, upholding democracy in the region, that his own Congress was trying to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/oas-meet-peru-after-president-castillo-complained-coup-attempt-2022-10-19\/\">remove him in what he said was a coup<\/a>. That may have worked \u2013 after all, he was a legitimately elected leader.<\/p>\n<p>But before the OAS was due to hear a report into the allegations, things escalated, culminating in Castillo\u2019s ouster.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So, both sides are claiming a coup? Any truth in those claims?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>That is a discussion that will likely go on for a long time. Peru\u2019s left will no doubt frame Castillo\u2019s removal as a coup, while anti-Castillo politicians will insist it wasn\u2019t. They will claim they were heading off a coup attempt from Castillo who, by dismissing Congress, was setting the stage to become a dictator-like leader.<\/p>\n<p>My sense is what happened was Castillo was desperate and trying to defend himself from a Congress that was over-zealous about getting rid of him. But this is not to say they do not have grounds for doing so, as there does appear to be credible evidence of corruption.<\/p>\n<p>Having said that, is that enough to say it was a coup \u2013 especially when it was brought about through constitutional measures? Perhaps not.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How have Peruvians reacted?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There have been some demonstrations, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2022-12-07\/protests-break-out-in-peru-after-congress-is-dissolved-video\">people out on the street<\/a>. But it has been so disorganized, it is hard to say who has been protesting for what and in support of whom. It also hasn\u2019t developed into widespread protests.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Has there been concern from regional leaders and the U.S.?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We have seen the usual international appeals for calm, and the OAS has expressed its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/americas\/organization-of-american-states-welcomes-new-peruvian-president\/2758241\">called for national unity<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, leftist leaders in the region have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/world\/articles\/2022-12-07\/reaction-in-americas-region-to-ousting-of-perus-castillo\">expressed support for the ousted Castillo<\/a>. Brazil\u2019s president-elect Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva expressed concern but said it was a \u201cconstitutional removal.\u201d Others, such as Bolivia\u2019s President Luis Arce framed Castillo\u2019s ouster as the \u201coverthow\u201d of a democratically elected government.<\/p>\n<p>There has been very little comment of consequence from the U.S. other than welcoming the new president and urging democratic order. Both the U.S. and regional leaders are likely hoping that the political and economic instability that has plagued Peru in recent years ends. The concern is that ongoing chaos could affect regional stability, and also affect Peru\u2019s position as a trading partner \u2013 the country is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnamericas.com\/en\/news\/peru-still-tops-world-in-silver-reserves-second-in-copper\">large producer of copper and silver<\/a>, among other mineral resources.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What could happen next?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There are a lot of ways this could play out. The new president has already called for a political truce and a government that represents all parties.<\/p>\n<p>But whether she will be allowed to effectively govern given her lack of a mandate is in question. Boluarte is a legitimate president based on the constitutional process that saw her put in place. But she has no legitimacy in the sense of being democratically elected. She was also very closely aligned with Castillo.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499799\/original\/file-20221208-12532-60amw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499799\/original\/file-20221208-12532-60amw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499799\/original\/file-20221208-12532-60amw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499799\/original\/file-20221208-12532-60amw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499799\/original\/file-20221208-12532-60amw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499799\/original\/file-20221208-12532-60amw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499799\/original\/file-20221208-12532-60amw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" alt=\"A women in a yellow jacket raises her right hand in front of a Peruvian flag.\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Dina Boluarte, Peru\u2019s sixth president in five years. Congress of Republic of Peru \/ Handout\/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>\n<p>Perhaps the best thing she could do is call immediately for general elections so the people can have a say in what happens next.<\/p>\n<p>But that could also be a risk, given the degree of political polarization in Peru. The country has seen a <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/business-peru-immigration-coronavirus-pandemic-united-nations-77420fe88a9e7ee1dbd9c2646af8bd2b\">rise in xenophobic and nationalistic sentiment<\/a>, due in part to high levels of immigration into the country.<\/p>\n<p>Peruvians want a government that can actually govern. The fear, however, is that the country\u2019s current conditions \u2013 economic and political instability mixed with polarization and growing xenophobia \u2013 could lend itself to the emergence of a far right populist.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/196207\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/eduardo-gamarra-1399649\">Eduardo Gamarra<\/a>, Professor of Politics and International Relations, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/florida-international-university-729\">Florida International University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/amid-coup-countercoup-claims-what-really-went-down-in-peru-and-why-196207\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Peru has a new president following the ouster of former leader Pedro Castillo at the hands of the country\u2019s Congress. His removal followed an attempt by Castillo to cling to power by dissolving a Congress intent on impeaching him. Castillo\u2019s opponents accused him of attempting a coup \u2013 a charge his supporters similarly levied in&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":8005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/499704\/original\/file-20221208-13-5137xh.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"Amid Coup, Countercoup Claims \u2013 What Really Went Down in Peru and Why?","footnotes":""},"categories":[192],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polity-governance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8002"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8002\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8004,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8002\/revisions\/8004"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}