{"id":7860,"date":"2022-08-05T11:20:19","date_gmt":"2022-08-05T15:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=7860"},"modified":"2022-08-05T11:20:19","modified_gmt":"2022-08-05T15:20:19","slug":"less-rain-in-the-rainforest-amazon-even-more-vulnerable-than-previously-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=7860","title":{"rendered":"Less Rain in the Rainforest: Amazon Even More Vulnerable Than Previously Thought"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

For every three trees dying from drought in the Amazon rainforest, a fourth tree \u2013 even though not directly affected \u2013 will die, too. In simplified terms, that\u2019s what a new study<\/a> published in PNAS<\/em> this week shows. The research team, led by Nico Wunderling at the Potsdam Institute of Climate Action Research, used network analysis to understand the complex workings of one of Earth\u2019s most valuable and biodiverse carbon sinks. The parts most at risk of turning into savannah are located on the forest\u2019s southern fringes, where continuous clearing for pasture or soy has already been weakening the forest\u2019s resilience for years.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ripple effect<\/strong><\/p>\n

The rainforest in South America may be losing its rain and with it, its moisture supply as climate change sends more frequent and more severe drought spells to the Amazon Basin. That lack of rain threatens the forest, because it breathes water: Once rained down, the soil takes it up as much as the plants, and both release a great amount back through evaporation and transpiration. In this atmospheric moisture recycling, the forest creates much of its own weather, generating up to half of the rainfall over the Amazon Basin. And while it is highly efficient, at the end of the day the moisture recycling system relies on how much water is initially put into the system.<\/p>\n

The research team has now found that even if a dry spell affects only one specific region of the forest, its harm stretches beyond that region by a factor of one to three.  As lack of rain strongly decreases the water recycling volume, there will also be less rainfall in neighbouring regions, hence putting even more parts of the forest under significant stress.<\/p>\n

\u201cMore intensive droughts put parts of the Amazon rainforest at risk of drying off and dying. Subsequently, due to the network effect, less forest cover leads to less water in the system overall, and hence disproportionately more harm,\u201d Wunderling explains. \u201cAnd while we\u2019ve investigated the impact of drought, that rule also holds for deforestation. It means essentially, when you chop down one acre of forest, what you actually are destroying is 1.3 acres.\u201d<\/p>\n

A new climate normal<\/strong><\/p>\n

Climate science predicts that what used to be extraordinarily dry years, like 2005 and 2010, may well become the new normal from 2050 onwards, with centennial droughts occurring in up to nine out of ten years by 2060<\/a>. \u201cThese recurrent droughts are already producing quantifiable changes to the Amazon\u2019s moisture network,\u201d explains Henrique Barbosa, co-senior author on the study and assistant professor of physics at University of Maryland, Baltimore County. \u201cWe use these observations to understand and model the consequences of a future climate that resembles a permanent drought state.\u201d<\/p>\n

But droughts have different effects on forest systems within the Amazon. \u201cIn the Amazon, trees and forest systems are differently adapted to water availability, as some regions commonly exhibit a distinct dry season while others have rain all year round. We specifically acknowledge these local adaptations as they can be a blessing or a curse under climate change,\u201d adds Boris Sakschewski, a co-author of the study at the Potsdam Institute.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo we find that even the dry season-adapted parts of the Amazon forest won\u2019t necessarily survive a new climate normal, and the risk of tipping into savannah or no trees at all is high,\u201d Sakschewski adds. \u201cThe consequences for biodiversity would be disastrous, but the same goes for the local, regional, and global climate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still much to do<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cYet not all is lost,\u201d says Ricarda Winkelmann, co-senior author of the study and leader of tipping elements research at the Potsdam Institute. \u201cThat is because a good part of the forest is still in relatively stable conditions. The network effects of dry spells are likely limited to certain areas in the forest\u2019s southeast and southwest\u2014which happen to be those areas where the forest has been suffering from the human hand already, in clearing forest for pasture or soy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is still a lot we can do to try and stabilize the Amazon, as preserving it and its ecological services is of utmost importance for local, regional and global climate stability,\u201d Winkelmann says. \u201cAnd we know how we can do that: by protecting the rainforest from logging, and by rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit further global warming.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For every three trees dying from drought in the Amazon rainforest, a fourth tree \u2013 even though not directly affected \u2013 will die, too. In simplified terms, that\u2019s what a new study published in PNAS this week shows. The research team, led by Nico Wunderling at the Potsdam Institute of Climate Action Research, used network…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":7862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.sonnenseite.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Amazonas_gustavofrazao-750x420.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"Less Rain in the Rainforest: Amazon Even More Vulnerable Than Previously Thought","footnotes":""},"categories":[195],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-health-environment"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7860"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7860\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7861,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7860\/revisions\/7861"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}