{"id":7839,"date":"2022-07-22T05:33:45","date_gmt":"2022-07-22T09:33:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=7839"},"modified":"2022-07-22T05:33:45","modified_gmt":"2022-07-22T09:33:45","slug":"north-atlantic-temperature-helps-forecast-extreme-events-in-northeast-brazil-up-to-3-months-in-advance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=7839","title":{"rendered":"North Atlantic Temperature Helps Forecast Extreme Events in Northeast Brazil Up to 3 Months in Advance"},"content":{"rendered":"
The finding comes from a study reported by scientists from Brazil, China, Australia and Germany in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The group used a novel methodology focusing on low rainfall and severe drought (dried-up Sobradinho dam in Bahia state in December 2015; photo: Marcello Casal Jr.\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean can be a predictor up to three months in advance of extreme climate events involving reduced rainfall and intense drought in the Northeast region of Brazil. This is one of the main findings of a study by researchers in Brazil, China, Australia and Germany, according to an article published<\/a> in Geophysical Research Letters<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Using a novel methodology based on the concept of precipitation deficit, the study showed that in recent years the influence of the North Atlantic has become more persistent than that of the tropical Pacific, hitherto considered one of the main factors in the intensity of the droughts suffered by the Northeast. At the same time, atmospheric connections between the Pacific and North Atlantic have become more frequent, suggesting that interactions between tropical ocean basins have reinforced the droughts occurring in the region in recent decades.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe study was motivated by the severe drought that lasted from 2012 until 2015. This long period led us to think, from the meteorological standpoint, about how tropical ocean temperatures influence the climate. The difference now is the innovative methodology exploring the contrasts between the Pacific and Atlantic, and the pattern of drought in the Northeast of Brazil. The findings can be used as a management tool for weather forecasts in advance of events with this potential,\u201d Lincoln Muniz Alves, a scientist at Brazil\u2019s National Space Research Institute (INPE) and a co-author of the article, told Ag\u00eancia FAPESP.<\/p>\n

The study was supported by FAPESP via a Thematic Project<\/a> linked to the National Science and Technology Institute for Climate Change<\/a> (INCT-CC<\/a>). The principal investigator for the Thematic Project is Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau<\/a>, a professor at the Federal University of S\u00e3o Paulo (UNIFESP).<\/p>\n

The 2012-15 drought in a part of the Northeast already classified as semi-arid was so intense that it destroyed crops and left cities and villages without water. Other studies had already identified changes in atmospheric circulation as the main cause, suggesting that an active role was played by the Atlantic Ocean\u2019s surface temperature, which was warmer than usual, and by El Ni\u00f1o, a climate phenomenon involving abnormally warm temperatures in the Pacific.<\/p>\n

This El Ni\u00f1o was considered one of the most impactful (after those recorded in 1982-83 and 1997-98) and caused losses in different parts of the world. In Brazil, the adverse effects included intense drought in the Northeast and the Amazon, a far longer dry season than usual in the North and several parts of central Brazil (northern areas of Minas Gerais and Goi\u00e1s states as well as the Federal District), and floods in the South.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis type of El Ni\u00f1o, known as \u2018canonical\u2019 because the anomalous warming occurs in the same specific area of the Pacific Ocean, has changed in terms of both location and intensity. In parallel, we\u2019ve seen anomalous warming in the tropical Atlantic in recent decades. Based on our multifaceted analysis, the article provides ample evidence for forecasters to monitor the signs coming from the tropical Atlantic several months in advance. The Pacific\u2019s influence is undeniable, but the Atlantic has more,\u201d Alves said.<\/p>\n

New parameters<\/p>\n

As explained by the authors, the study used methods such as non-linear phase coherence and generalized event synchronization analysis to understand the cause-and-effect mechanisms underlying the climate phenomena investigated. To this end, the relationships between sea surface temperature variability and the standard precipitation index were interpreted as direct interactions, while those between the oceans were interpreted as indirect effects on rainfall levels.<\/p>\n

The researchers used precipitation data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration\u2019s National Weather Service (NOAA-NWS). They selected four regions: the Northeast of Brazil, the center of the drought for decades; an area called Ni\u00f1o 3, where there was intense activity of the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and the North and South Atlantic, areas analyzed in previous studies.<\/p>\n

To verify consistency, they compared the results with Ni\u00f1o 4, an area that includes the central equatorial Pacific and part of the South Atlantic. For each domain, they calculated the spatial mean of the variable of interest and daily anomalies relative to a baseline for the period 1981-2010. The rainy season was defined as January-April, and the dry season as May-August.<\/p>\n

They concluded that the North Atlantic was the main influence on precipitation shortfalls and the occurrence of droughts during the period analyzed. Precipitation and sea surface temperature frequencies changed after very strong El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events, increasing the likelihood of phase coherence.<\/p>\n

\u201cA normal or linear pattern like the one seen three decades ago no longer exists,\u201d Alves said. \u201cSeveral other studies have corroborated our results. Our methodology shows that no linear pattern exists as a basis for forecasting and that conventional approaches should be abandoned. We highlighted the importance of looking at other oceans rather than focusing on the Pacific alone.\u201d<\/p>\n

The article also concludes that other factors such as land-use changes can lead to alterations in the hydrologic cycle, as already demonstrated by modeling studies, especially regarding the Amazon basin. For this reason, the scientists suggest that further research using the methodology they have developed should investigate how land-use changes alter climate characteristics and interactions.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we discuss climate change, we\u2019re also talking about socio-economic impacts and the effect on biodiversity. Meteorological centers can use the model to work on prevention as a contribution to public policy and decision making on mitigation of extreme events,\u201d Alves said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean can be a predictor up to three months in advance of extreme climate events involving reduced rainfall and intense drought in the Northeast region of Brazil. This is one of the main findings of a study by researchers in Brazil, China, Australia and Germany, according to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":7841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/agencia.fapesp.br\/agencia-novo\/imagens\/noticia\/39153.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"North Atlantic Temperature Helps Forecast Extreme Events in Northeast Brazil Up to 3 Months in Advance","footnotes":""},"categories":[195],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-health-environment"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7839"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7839\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7840,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7839\/revisions\/7840"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}