{"id":6820,"date":"2019-04-17T17:57:49","date_gmt":"2019-04-17T21:57:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6820"},"modified":"2019-04-29T17:58:02","modified_gmt":"2019-04-29T21:58:02","slug":"one-year-after-nicaraguan-uprising-ortega-is-back-in-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6820","title":{"rendered":"One Year After Nicaraguan Uprising, Ortega Is Back in Control"},"content":{"rendered":"
Riot police at an anti-government march in Managua, Nicaragua, Oct. 14, 2018. Reuters\/Oswaldo Rivas<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

One year ago, Nicaragua\u2019s government was on the verge of collapse<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Protests against President Daniel Ortega exploded nationwide on April 19, 2018<\/a> after the government quietly passed a tax on retirees\u2019 pension checks. Demonstrators barricaded highways and main roads, paralyzing Nicaragua\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

By May 2018, 70% of Nicaraguans<\/a> wanted Ortega \u2013 who has grown astonishingly rich<\/a> ruling Central America\u2019s largest country \u2013 to resign.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is not a dialogue,\u201d student activist Lesther Alem\u00e1n told Ortega<\/a> during a May 2018 televised negotiation with the government<\/a>. \u201cThis table is to negotiate your exit, and you know it very well because the people have demanded it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Today, President Daniel Ortega is back in control. Alem\u00e1n and hundreds of other opposition leaders fled the country. And at least 50,000 Nicaraguans<\/a>, including dozens of reporters<\/a>, have escaped to neighboring countries.<\/p>\n

But for a few flare-ups of protest \u2013 all quickly and violently quashed \u2013 Nicaragua\u2019s \u201ctropical spring<\/a>\u201d has lost its momentum. What happened?<\/p>\n

Ortega\u2019s electoral authoritarianism<\/strong><\/p>\n

I am an American scholar<\/a> who has researched Nicaraguan politics for years. When the political chaos forced my family and me to abandon Managua in June 2018<\/a>, I felt fairly certain<\/a> that Ortega\u2019s days were numbered.<\/p>\n

In a democratic society, I might have been right. Since 1985, 70 percent of all democratically elected Latin American presidents who faced similarly sustained street protests were ultimately removed from office<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ortega has defied these odds by becoming the kind of strongman leader he rebelled against<\/a> as a hero of Nicaragua\u2019s 1979 Sandinista Revolution<\/a>. Using calculated repression<\/a> to crush dissent and anti-imperialist rhetoric<\/a> to deflect blame, Ortega has actually strengthened his grip on power.<\/p>\n

This is Ortega\u2019s third consecutive term as president and fifth time governing Nicaragua. He first came to power in the 1980s as head of the Sandinistas\u2019 post-revolution ruling junta and, in 1985, was elected president.<\/p>\n

In 1990 Ortega lost to Violeta Chamorro<\/a>, who ushered in 16 years of conservative government<\/a> in left-leaning Nicaragua. Ortega returned to office in 2007.<\/p>\n

Since then, Ortega has systematically concentrated power in the executive branch<\/a>, stacking the supreme court<\/a> with party loyalists<\/a>, cracking down on press freedom<\/a> and, in 2014, abolishing presidential term limits<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In 2016, Ortega won his third consecutive term<\/a> with over 70% of the vote and made his wife, Rosario Murillo, his vice president. But just 30% of the Nicaraguan electorate turned out<\/a> that year \u2013 the first sign that Ortega\u2019s popularity was waning.<\/p>\n

Fifteen months later, thousands of anti-government demonstrations had nearly toppled his regime.<\/p>\n

\u2018They wanted me dead or alive\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ortega has mobilized all the power of the Nicaraguan state<\/a> \u2013 a government he built from scratch in his mold<\/a> \u2013 to survive.<\/p>\n

The regime has sent riot police and pro-government paramilitaries to beat, shoot, terrorize and arrest protesters. Some political prisoners have been released<\/a>, but hundreds are still in jail<\/a>. There, say dissidents, they have been tortured with waterboarding, electric shocks and sexual assault<\/a>. Many report being forced to record self-incriminating videos<\/a>.<\/p>\n

After 20-year-old Lesther Alem\u00e1n confronted Ortega on national TV last May, death threats poured in, forcing him into hiding and, eventually, exile. Alem\u00e1n contends that the government offered US$50,000 dollars for his capture<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Lesther Aleman confronts Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega at a televised negotiation on May 16, 2018.AP Photo\/Alfredo Zuniga<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cThey wanted me dead or alive,\u201d he told me recently from his new home in the United States. \u201cThat was a before and after moment. Since then, nothing has been the same.\u201d<\/p>\n

A majority of Nicaraguans agree<\/a>. According to a Cid Gallup poll conducted in January, 74% say life has worsened over the past year, 66% disapprove of the government and 54% want Nicaragua\u2019s next presidential election moved up from 2021 to this year.<\/p>\n

Only 25% of respondants<\/a> align themselves with Ortega\u2019s Sandinista party.<\/p>\n

An American scapegoat<\/strong><\/p>\n

Still, the numbers show, Ortega retains remnants of his base.<\/p>\n

Like his Venezuelan ally Nicolas Maduro, who blames the U.S. for his country\u2019s economic and humanitarian crisis<\/a>, Ortega has rallied supporters<\/a> by blaming United States for the popular uprising against him.<\/p>\n