{"id":6718,"date":"2019-01-09T09:39:23","date_gmt":"2019-01-09T14:39:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6718"},"modified":"2019-01-20T09:39:43","modified_gmt":"2019-01-20T14:39:43","slug":"venezuelans-reject-maduro-presidency-but-most-would-oppose-foreign-military-operation-to-oust-him","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6718","title":{"rendered":"Venezuelans Reject Maduro Presidency \u2014 but Most Would Oppose Foreign Military Operation to Oust Him"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theday.com\/storyimage\/NL\/20190110\/NWS13\/190119921\/AR\/0\/AR-190119921.jpg&amp;Maxw=960&amp;q=75\" width=\"960\" height=\"642\"><\/p>\n<p>Venezuelan president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, who has led his country into <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/nobody-is-going-to-bail-out-venezuela-87428\">one of the world\u2019s worst economic crises<\/a>, was sworn in for a new six-year term on Jan. 10.<\/p>\n<p>His inauguration at the Supreme Court was a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elmundo.es\/internacional\/2019\/01\/09\/5c364bdffc6c83112a8b4780.html\">lonely one<\/a>: Some 40 countries \u2013 including the United States, Brazil, Colombia and the entire European Union \u2013 are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/venezuelas-presidency-jeopardy\">refusing to recognize Maduro\u2019s government<\/a> because they believe his May 2018 re-election was <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/venezuelans-are-boycotting-their-presidential-election-96702\">rigged<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>How else could a leader with a 21 percent approval rating <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/venezuela-is-now-a-dictatorship-96960\">win 68 percent of the vote<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p>Oil producer Venezuela, once among Latin America\u2019s more prosperous nations, has seen <a href=\"https:\/\/venezuelablog.org\/crude-realities-understanding-venezuelas-economic-collapse\/\">severe food and medicine shortages since 2014<\/a>. Thousands of people <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/refugees-from-venezuela-are-fleeing-to-latin-american-cities-not-refugee-camps-103040\">flee dire crisis there every day<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Most Venezuelans hold Maduro \u2013 the late Hugo Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s handpicked successor, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2013\/04\/15\/world\/americas\/venezuelans-vote-for-successor-to-chavez.html\">first elected president in 2013<\/a> \u2013 responsible for their suffering.<\/p>\n<p>But holding Maduro accountable has proven vexingly difficult.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Seeking change democratically<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Citizens can democratically demand change from poorly performing leaders in three ways: vote them out of office, protest for them to change course or resign, or make demands through face-to-face dialogue.<\/p>\n<p>Venezuelans have tried all three.<\/p>\n<p>The last free elections in Venezuela were held in December 2015. Opposition parties <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2015\/dec\/09\/venezuela-election-opposition-coalition-secures-supermajority\">won the Venezuelan legislature in a landslide<\/a>, securing a super-majority that gave them unprecedented strength to check Maduro.<\/p>\n<p>His ruling United Socialist Party responded by progressively stripping the legislature of its powers and ensuring the Socialists would not lose another election.<\/p>\n<p>First, the government-run national electoral agency canceled a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2016\/10\/venezuela-suspends-recall-vote-president-maduro-161021034609853.html\">proposed presidential recall vote<\/a> in 2016. Then, in July 2017, the Socialist Party called an unconstitutional vote to elect an alternative legislature. Later that year, party officials openly <a href=\"https:\/\/venezuelanalysis.com\/news\/13441\">committed fraud<\/a> in regional elections.<\/p>\n<p>When Maduro stood for re-election in 2018, Socialist Party officials <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-an-election-wont-topple-venezuelas-maduro-89332\">disqualified leading opposition politicians and parties from running<\/a> and forced the vote seven months early to prevent them from reorganizing.<\/p>\n<p>Many Venezuelans fought for their democracy.<\/p>\n<p>From April to July 2017, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/fight-or-flight-for-young-people-in-venezuela-that-is-the-question-77909\">took to the streets nationwide<\/a>, mostly in peaceful protest. Marchers in Caracas who neared the presidential palace or government ministries were met by police and soldiers in riot gear who scattered them using tear gas, water cannons and, often, live ammunition.<\/p>\n<p>At least 124 people were killed during Venezuela\u2019s 2017 protests. Another 4,000 were injured and 5,000 were arrested, according to the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.oas.org\/en\/iachr\/media_center\/PReleases\/2018\/025.asp\">Inter-American Human Rights Council<\/a>. Dozens, perhaps hundreds, were tortured.<\/p>\n<p>Amid all of this, Venezuela\u2019s opposition also tried talking with Maduro\u2019s government.<\/p>\n<p>But dialogues in 2014, 2016 and 2018 \u2014 including one <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/political-dialogue-is-a-lost-art-in-venezuela-and-the-vaticans-intervention-wont-help-68906\">mediated by the Vatican<\/a> \u2014 achieved little. Arguably, the talks <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/venezuela-on-the-verge-of-dictatorship-can-dialogue-or-demonstrations-turn-it-around-68042\">weakened the opposition-led protest movement<\/a> by giving the appearance of government concessions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The military option<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After democratic elections, protest and dialogue failed to resolve Venezuela\u2019s political crisis, some international leaders proposed a more drastic measure to create political change.<\/p>\n<p>In August 2017, shortly after the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/jul\/31\/us-venezuela-sanctions-nicolas-maduro\">U.S. slapped economic sanctions on President Maduro himself<\/a>, President Donald Trump said that the United States was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/08\/12\/world\/americas\/venezuela-nicholas-maduro-military-option.html\">considering a \u201cmilitary option\u201d<\/a> in Venezuela.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cVenezuela is not very far away and the people are suffering, and they are dying,\u201d Trump said. \u201cWe have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option if necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Administration officials even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/09\/08\/world\/americas\/donald-trump-venezuela-military-coup.html\">met with Venezuelan military officials<\/a> plotting a coup before declining to support their plan.<\/p>\n<p>Latin American governments <a href=\"https:\/\/elpais.com\/internacional\/2018\/09\/16\/america\/1537061395_976072.html\">rejected<\/a> Trump\u2019s \u201cmilitary option.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But some exiled Venezuela leaders have embraced the idea.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMilitary intervention by a coalition of regional forces may be the only way to end a man-made famine threatening millions of lives,\u201d the former Venezuelan minister and Harvard professor Ricardo Hausmann wrote <a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/venezuela-catastrophe-military-intervention-by-ricardo-hausmann-2018-01?barrier=accesspaylog\">in a January 2018 Project Syndicate column<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Hausmann pointed to the 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama and World War II as positive precedents of foreign interventions that ended tyrannical regimes.<\/p>\n<p>Former Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma has used euphemistic language to justify a foreign-backed removal of Maduro, saying it would be a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.miamiherald.com\/latest-news\/article208682519.html\">humanitarian intervention<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Comparing the crisis there to the Rwandan genocide of the 1990s, Secretary General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro has suggested that military intervention <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/af68e6e2-c0b4-11e8-84cd-9e601db069b8\">could be justified under international law<\/a>, which includes the \u201cresponsibility to protect.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In the view of \u201cmilitary option\u201d supporters, Venezuelans would welcome such an operation if it ended their suffering.<\/p>\n<p>Intervention would be \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/international\/405373-rubios-wrong-dont-send-the-marines-into-venezuela\">extremely popular<\/a>\u201d in Venezuela, according to Diego Arria, a former Venezuelan ambassador to the United Nations and a prominent Maduro critic.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Would Venezuelans support foreign military intervention?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>My <a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=mG5rPFUAAAAJ&amp;hl=fr\">research<\/a> in Venezuela suggests otherwise.<\/p>\n<p>All credible polling in Venezuela <a href=\"http:\/\/www.producto.com.ve\/pro\/palestra\/datan-lisis-679-rechaza-gesti-n-maduro-y-quiere-que-deje-poder-o\">says<\/a> that most Venezuelans desperately want Maduro out. But that does not necessarily mean they are open to desperate measures.<\/p>\n<p>In November 2018, I worked with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.datanalisis.com\">Datan\u00e1lisis<\/a>, one of Venezuela\u2019s most respected polling companies, to add several questions about about military intervention and potential negotiations to its nationwide tracking poll.<\/p>\n<p>When asked whether they would support \u201ca foreign military intervention to remove President Maduro from his position,\u201d only 35 percent said yes \u2013 hardly the warm welcome predicted by advocates. More than half \u2013 54 percent \u2013 would reject such an operation.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"XoJiD\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/XoJiD\/5\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Venezuelans are also skeptical of renewed talks with Maduro.<\/p>\n<p>Only 37 percent would \u201cagree with a new dialogue between the government and the opposition.\u201d Forty percent are \u201cindifferent\u201d to renewed talks or did not answer the question.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So what do Venezuelans want?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Given how poorly past engagement with Maduro\u2019s government has gone, their doubts are understandable.<\/p>\n<p>Interest in further talks balloons, however, if the same question is reframed to include a positive result.<\/p>\n<p>When respondents were asked about \u201ca negotiated settlement to remove President Maduro from power,\u201d 63 percent said they would support it. That makes negotiations by far the most popular option for restoring democracy in Venezuela, according to this data.<\/p>\n<p>These results should boost <a href=\"https:\/\/www.apnews.com\/82ccc0b2e22b4319940d397ee703fafb\">current efforts<\/a> by the European Union and the Boston Group \u2013 a coalition of Venezuelan and American politicians \u2013 to restore high-level contact between Venezuelan government figures, opposition leaders and foreign officials.<\/p>\n<p>Diplomacy may be slow and frustrating. But a negotiated settlement would have the support of the people who matter most: the Venezuelans who must survive Maduro\u2019s rule.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/109135\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: http:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/david-smilde-388476\">David Smilde<\/a>, Professor of Sociology, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/tulane-university-1395\">Tulane University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Venezuelan president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, who has led his country into one of the world\u2019s worst economic crises, was sworn in for a new six-year term on Jan. 10. His inauguration at the Supreme Court was a lonely one: Some 40 countries \u2013 including the United States, Brazil, Colombia and the entire European Union \u2013 are&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":7272,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.theday.com\/storyimage\/NL\/20190110\/NWS13\/190119921\/AR\/0\/AR-190119921.jpg&#038;Maxw=960&#038;q=75","fifu_image_alt":"Venezuelans Reject Maduro Presidency \u2014 but Most Would Oppose Foreign Military Operation to Oust Him","footnotes":""},"categories":[192],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polity-governance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6718"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6718\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6721,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6718\/revisions\/6721"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}