{"id":6553,"date":"2018-05-22T14:19:04","date_gmt":"2018-05-22T18:19:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6553"},"modified":"2018-05-22T14:19:04","modified_gmt":"2018-05-22T18:19:04","slug":"brazilian-candidate-still-crushing-his-rivals-from-jail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6553","title":{"rendered":"Brazilian Candidate Still Crushing His Rivals from Jail"},"content":{"rendered":"
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With over a dozen candidates and an incarcerated front-runner, Brazil\u2019s 2018 presidential election has political analysts shrugging their shoulders. AP Photo\/Leo Correa<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>\n

It would be hard to overstate the prominence of former president Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/a> in Brazil. The founder of the left-wing Workers\u2019 Party, this former union leader \u2013 who goes by \u201cLula\u201d \u2013 has dominated Brazilian politics for the last 30 years.<\/p>\n

Lula was a top contender in the 1989, 1994 and 1998 elections. He won the presidency in 2002<\/a> and was re-elected by a landslide in 2006<\/a>. Leaving office with an 80 percent approval rating<\/a>, he helped get his protege Dilma Rousseff elected to succeed him<\/a> in both 2010 and 2014.<\/p>\n

Now Lula is a clear favorite<\/a> for Brazil\u2019s October 2018 presidential election. There\u2019s just one problem: He\u2019s in jail.<\/p>\n

On July 21, 2018, a Brazilian appeals court sentenced the former president to 12 years in prison for corruption<\/a> \u2013 a polarizing and controversial verdict Lula supporters see as a politically motivated<\/a> attempt to derail his campaign.<\/p>\n

In theory, Lula can still run. Brazil\u2019s \u201cClean Slate\u201d statute forbids candidates with criminal convictions upheld on appeal to run for office, but conflicting legal interpretations<\/a> leave some room for doubt. The Superior Electoral Court has not yet vetoed his candidacy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As Brazilian<\/a> political scientists<\/a>, however, we believe Lula\u2019s chances of actually competing in October are slim. With 12 candidates<\/a> and no front-runner, this is Brazil\u2019s most unpredictable election since it transitioned from dictatorship to democracy<\/a> in the 1980s.<\/p>\n

What happens next?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brazil has a high number of political parties<\/a> \u2013 35 at last count. Even so, presidential elections here have traditionally been rather predictable.<\/p>\n

The two-round election counterbalances the centrifugal forces of the country\u2019s multiparty system, allowing parties to regroup around the two leading candidates for the run-off<\/a>. In the last six presidential elections, the two biggest parties \u2013 Lula\u2019s Workers\u2019 Party and the conservative Social Democratic Party of Brazil \u2013 have ultimately faced off.<\/p>\n

With October\u2019s election approaching quickly, the Workers\u2019 Party faces a serious dilemma.<\/p>\n

Party leaders could continue to back Lula\u2019s candidacy as long as the electoral court allows it. If he is ultimately disqualified, they could then ask his base to shift their support to a replacement candidate.<\/p>\n

Polls show that two out of three<\/a> Lula supporters would vote for whoever he endorses. But if Lula is disqualified late in the campaign, Workers\u2019 Party voters would have little time to get to know whomever is tapped to replace him.<\/p>\n

Alternatively, the party could decide that Lula\u2019s candidacy is a lost cause and ask the former president to endorse another candidate now. We believe that is improbable, though, since Workers\u2019 Party leaders would be leery of showing their base a sign of weakness.<\/p>\n

The strongest candidate with any chance of appealing to Lula voters is Ciro Gomes<\/a>, of the centrist Democratic Labor Party. But Gomes, a maverick, seems determined to distance himself from the Workers\u2019 Party and its towering founder.<\/p>\n

Brazil\u2019s unpredictable race<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Workers\u2019 Party isn\u2019t alone in struggling this campaign season.<\/p>\n

President Michel Temer, who rose to power after Dilma Rousseff\u2019s 2015 impeachment and has also been charged with corruption<\/a>, is extremely unpopular<\/a>. Almost half of the population saw Rousseff\u2019s impeachment as a coup d’etat<\/a> orchestrated by him. Temer\u2019s painful austerity measures, pushed through during a deep recession, alienated pretty much everyone else.<\/p>\n

With an approval rating in the single digits<\/a>, the president will likely not run for re-election<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Former S\u00e3o Paulo governor Geraldo Ackmin, who is representing Brazil\u2019s mainstream conservative Brazilian Social Democratic Party<\/a>, is languishing, too. He scored just 8 percent in the latest poll<\/a>. Ackmin and other key party figures are enmeshed in the same nationwide corruption scandal that took down Lula<\/a>, though none have been convicted or arrested.<\/p>\n

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Brazil\u2019s deeply unpopular President Michel Temer, who has been accused of corruption, is a liability for any candidate associated with him. AP Photo\/Eraldo Peres<\/figcaption><\/figure>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Even the Brazilian media, which typically throws its weight behind the leading candidate<\/a>, is scrambling this election season.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, most newspapers seemed to settle on a popular talk show host, Luciano Huck, who was eyeing a presidential bid<\/a>. But in early February he dropped out of the race<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Then columnists began praising former Supreme Court Justice Joaquim Barbosa<\/a>. He became something of a media star a few years back when he convicted several Workers\u2019 Party officials in a high-profile corruption case<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But in early May, Barbosa, too, withdrew his bid<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A reminder of the dictatorship<\/strong><\/p>\n

If any candidate really stands out from the crowd, it is Congressman Jair Bolsonaro, a staunchly pro-gun, anti-abortion former military commander<\/a>. But the media seems to view him as too outrageous to rally behind.<\/p>\n

In April, Bolsonaro was charged<\/a> with \u201cinciting hatred\u201d for his verbal attacks on women, gay people and minorities. He often speaks with nostalgia of the military dictatorship that governed Brazil from 1964 to 1985.<\/p>\n

The Economist has dubbed Bolsonaro<\/a> \u201cBrazil\u2019s Donald Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

Throughout the campaign, Bolsonaro has trailed only Lula. Roughly 15 percent of Brazilians say they plan to vote for him<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Lula\u2019s exit should give him a boost. But Bolsonaro\u2019s greatest weakness is his extremism. In a two-round electoral process like Brazil\u2019s, as history shows, the candidate who captures the middle wins<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Enter the outsider?<\/strong><\/p>\n

In an election year when both mainstream parties are battling corruption allegations<\/a>, some candidates are conspiring to paint themselves as outsiders.<\/p>\n

Marina Silva, an evangelical environmentalist now in her third presidential bid<\/a>, has long presented herself as a political outsider who could bring change to Brazil. Even Bolsonaro, who has served in Congress for 30 years, touts his credentials as a military man<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a reasonable electoral strategy this year. But since neither Silva nor Bolsonaro is backed by a mainstream political party, they will lack the funding<\/a>, TV and radio ad time<\/a> and campaign infrastructure to reach all Brazil, the world\u2019s fifth-largest country.<\/p>\n

After four years of protracted political crisis<\/a>, many hope the 2018 election \u2013 when Brazilians will choose not just their president but also congressional representatives and governors \u2013 will give Brazilian democracy a much-needed restart.<\/p>\n

\"TheBut, given the circumstances, that seems like a long shot.<\/p>\n

Jo\u00e3o Feres J\u00fanior, Professor of political science, Rio de Janeiro State University and Fabio Kerche, Political science researcher, Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Casa de Rui Barbosa<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It would be hard to overstate the prominence of former president Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva in Brazil. The founder of the left-wing Workers\u2019 Party, this former union leader \u2013 who goes by \u201cLula\u201d \u2013 has dominated Brazilian politics for the last 30 years. Lula was a top contender in the 1989, 1994 and 1998…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":7235,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/218856\/original\/file-20180514-100716-1ppd2gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[192],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polity-governance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6553"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6553\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6555,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6553\/revisions\/6555"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7235"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}