{"id":6545,"date":"2018-05-22T14:09:31","date_gmt":"2018-05-22T18:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6545"},"modified":"2018-05-22T14:09:31","modified_gmt":"2018-05-22T18:09:31","slug":"amnesty-for-drug-traffickers-thats-one-mexican-presidential-candidates-pitch-to-voters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6545","title":{"rendered":"Amnesty for Drug Traffickers? That\u2019s One Mexican Presidential Candidate\u2019s Pitch to Voters"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Can Mexico become a \u2018loving republic\u2019 built on forgiveness rather than punishment? Shutterstock\/Nalidsa<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>\n

With over 29,000 murders<\/a>, 2017 was the deadliest year in Mexico since modern record-keeping began. Nearly two-thirds of Mexicans say<\/a> crime and violence are the biggest problems facing their country.<\/p>\n

A main cause of the bloodshed, studies show<\/a>, is the Mexican government\u2019s violent crackdown on drug trafficking. Launched in 2006<\/a> under President Felipe Calder\u00f3n, this military assault on cartels has left 234,966 people dead<\/a> in 11 years.<\/p>\n

While numerous drug kingpins have been jailed, cartels fractured under law enforcement pressure<\/a>, competing for territory and diversifying their business. Kidnapping and extortion have surged. Mexico is now one of the world\u2019s most violent places<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Now one presidential candidate in Mexico is hoping to win over voters with a novel response to the country\u2019s security crisis: amnesty for criminals<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Justice not revenge<\/strong><\/p>\n

The idea, first floated by leftist front-runner Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador in August 2016<\/a>, is undeveloped and quite likely quixotic. L\u00f3pez Obrador has yet to even indicate precisely what benefit the Mexican government would get in exchange for pardoning felons.<\/p>\n

Still, as a law professor<\/a> who studies drug policy, I must give L\u00f3pez Obrador some credit for originality. His three competitors have mostly frustrated voters<\/a> this campaign season by suggesting the same tried-and-failed law enforcement-based strategies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

L\u00f3pez Obrador, founder and leader of Mexico\u2019s MORENA Party, is a rabble-rousing politician<\/a> who delights in challenging the status quo. In this, his third presidential bid, he has on several occasions suggested<\/a> that both members of organized crime groups<\/a> and corrupt politicians could be pardoned for their crimes.<\/p>\n

When pressed for details on the amnesty plan, L\u00f3pez Obrador has simply responded that \u201camnesty is not impunity\u201d or that Mexico needs \u201cjustice,\u201d not \u201crevenge.\u201d<\/p>\n

Former Supreme Court Justice Olga S\u00e1nchez Cordero, L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s pick for secretary of the interior, has offered a few additional hints about the plan. She says that voters should think of amnesty<\/a> not as a security policy but as a kind of transitional justice. It would be an instrument used to pacify Mexico.<\/p>\n

The opportunity would be time-limited. Criminals would lose their immunity after a specific date if they have not met certain conditions \u2013 though these conditions remain undefined. It would also exclude serious crimes such as torture, rape or homicide.<\/p>\n

All presidential pardons would need to be approved by Congress, in accordance with the Mexican Constitution<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Amnesty in Colombia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sound vague? That\u2019s because it is.<\/p>\n

L\u00f3pez Obrador says that his amnesty idea is still in development, and that his team will work<\/a> with religious organizations, Pope Francis, United Nations General Secretary Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, Mexican civil society groups and human rights experts to develop \u201ca plan to achieve peace for the country, with justice and dignity.\u201d<\/p>\n

Colombia offers one example of how amnesty can be used as an instrument for peace<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In 2016 the Colombian government signed an accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, ending the Marxist group\u2019s violent 52-year rebellion. In exchange for laying down their weapons, FARC fighters were offered protection<\/a> from prosecution for political crimes committed during the conflict.<\/p>\n

The amnesty law is extremely controversial. Colombian conservatives and the United Nations alike have criticized<\/a> it for prioritizing the rights of guerrillas over those of their victims. Colombia\u2019s peace process has also been fraught by delays, flare-ups of violence<\/a> and political opposition<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Still, according to the Conflict Analysis Resource Center<\/a>, a think tank, conflict-related deaths among both civilians and combatants dropped over 90 percent<\/a> in 2016.<\/p>\n

Would amnesty work in Mexico?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mexico is not Colombia.<\/p>\n

L\u00f3pez Obrador is proposing amnesty in a different conflict carried out by radically different actors \u2013 drug kingpins, corrupt politicians and security forces who for 11 years have waged war with virtual impunity<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear, for example, why drug traffickers would abandon their US$40 billion<\/a> illicit industry \u2013 which supports around 500,000 jobs<\/a> in Mexico \u2013 in exchange for a preemptive pardon from authorities.<\/p>\n

It is also difficult to reconcile L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s vows for honest government<\/a> with his proposal to pardon corruption, though he has committed to<\/a> finishing all ongoing investigations into public officials<\/a> accused of corruption.<\/p>\n

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Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, who goes by his initials, AMLO, has not elaborated on his amnesty idea. AP Photo\/Rebecca Blackwell<\/figcaption><\/figure>
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L\u00f3pez Obrador claims to seek a new \u201cmoral constitution<\/a>\u201d for Mexico. He maintains that forgiveness is necessary to construct a \u201crep\u00fablica amorosa\u201d \u2013 \u201cloving republic<\/a>\u201d \u2013 in which Mexicans \u201clive under the principle that being good is the only way to be joyful.\u201d<\/p>\n

A simple expectation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mexicans don\u2019t feel joyful right now.<\/p>\n

According to a recent IPSOS poll<\/a>, 89 percent of Mexicans believe the country is on the wrong track. Almost 70 percent disapprove of President Enrique Pe\u00f1a Nieto\u2019s performance<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Journalist and historian H\u00e9ctor Aguilar Cam\u00edn has described<\/a> voters\u2019 current mood as \u201cmelancholic.\u201d Rampant corruption<\/a>, government repression<\/a> and bloody violence<\/a> have made them skeptical of politics. But, as Aguilar Cam\u00edn says, people also need desperately to believe that change is possible.<\/p>\n

This discontent has given L\u00f3pez Obrador a virtually unbeatable lead<\/a> in the lead-up to the July election.<\/p>\n

To paraphrase the prominent Mexican-American Univision reporter Jorge Ramos, all Mexicans want from their next president is to keep them from being killed<\/a>. So they\u2019re open to unusual ideas.<\/p>\n

During two presidential debates<\/a>, the only candidate other than L\u00f3pez Obrador to propose a radical new crime-fighting tactic<\/a> is Governor Jaime \u201cEl Bronco\u201d Rodr\u00edguez, an independent from Nuevo Leon state. He promised \u201cto cut off the hands\u201d of corrupt politicians and criminals, a suggestion that left moderator Azucena Uresti<\/a> \u2013 and most of the country<\/a> \u2013 aghast.<\/p>\n

The Mexican Constitution<\/a> prohibits punishment with mutilation and torture.<\/p>\n