{"id":6398,"date":"2017-11-29T16:45:23","date_gmt":"2017-11-29T21:45:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6398"},"modified":"2017-11-29T16:45:23","modified_gmt":"2017-11-29T21:45:23","slug":"chile-heads-into-presidential-runoff-with-a-transformed-political-landscape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6398","title":{"rendered":"Chile Heads into Presidential Runoff with a Transformed Political Landscape"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Beatriz S\u00e1nchez\u2019s strong finish in the first round of Chile\u2019s presidential election has thrown the race wide open. Her new left-wing party also won 20 congressional seats. Andres Pina\/Aton via AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It took some time, but it seems Chile has finally entered a new political era.<\/p>\n

For 27 years after the end of Augusto Pinochet\u2019s dictatorship<\/a>, politics in this South American country were dominated by the same faces. The generation that, starting in 1990, led Chile<\/a> through one of the world\u2019s most celebrated democratic transitions stayed in power, almost uncontested, for nearly three decades.<\/p>\n

No longer. In the country\u2019s Nov. 19 general election<\/a>, it was new parties helmed by fresh leaders that emerged victorious. Never have so few incumbents \u2013 seven senators and 74 congressional representatives \u2013 been reelected. Never have so many new faces \u2013 12 senators and 81 congressional representatives \u2013 joined government.<\/p>\n

Propelled by a younger generation, these political newcomers have thrown open Chilean politics and made the Dec. 19 presidential runoff between former President Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era<\/a> and the center-leftist Alejandro Guillier anyone\u2019s race<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At long last, renewal<\/strong><\/p>\n

Led by former student activists who are now in their early 30s, the Frente Amplio, or Broad Front \u2013 a new left-wing coalition often compared to Spain\u2019s populist Podemos Party<\/a> \u2013 took the day.<\/p>\n

The party\u2019s presidential candidate, Beatriz S\u00e1nchez, a 46-year-old journalist, got 20 percent of the vote<\/a> \u2013 far greater than expected. Many of her supporters are expected to back Guillier in the second round of voting.<\/p>\n

The Broad Front also won 20 seats in the lower house of Congress<\/a>. It previously held just three seats.<\/p>\n

The Broad Front now has more representatives than the historically powerful Christian Democratic Party<\/a>, which faces an aging party membership and an increasingly obsolete moderate discourse, and the Party for Democracy, whose founding in the late 1980s helped defeat Pinochet\u2019s regime<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Some commentators are reading the Broad Front\u2019s success as a shift toward the populist left<\/a>. But, as a Chilean analyst, I believe it is best understood as the emergence of a new political generation. For the first time in my life, my country\u2019s politics are not defined by the cleavages of Pinochet\u2019s times.<\/p>\n

Not only were traditional leftist parties unable to bring new talent into leadership positions this electoral season, leading to shakeups on the campaign trail<\/a>, but so too were right-wing parties.<\/p>\n

The recently founded Ev\u00f3poli Party gained five new congressional seats<\/a>, giving it six representatives in Congress. It also got two candidates elected to the Senate.<\/p>\n

Within Chile\u2019s conservative right wing, which is dominated by parties born to defend Pinochet\u2019s legacy, Ev\u00f3poli stands out for its slightly more liberal and open-minded outlook.<\/p>\n

It cannot yet challenge the electoral strength of other conservative parties \u2013 Ev\u00f3poli\u2019s 40-year-old leader, Felipe Kast, unsuccessfully challenged Pi\u00f1era<\/a> in the June presidential primary \u2013 but its modern discourse is speaking to younger audiences.<\/p>\n

Presidential uncertainty<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pi\u00f1era, who was Chile\u2019s president from 2010 to 2014, will now face off against Guillier in a tough second election. In the lead-up to the first round of voting, opinion polls gave him between 43 percent and 46 percent of the popular vote<\/a> in an eight-person contest.<\/p>\n

Winning with 36.6 percent of the vote was thus a victory with a bitter taste for Pi\u00f1era. Pundits are offering numerous theories to explain his unimpressive showing. The simplest is that polls in Chile failed miserably<\/a>, as they\u2019ve done across the world this past year<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Another analysis holds that Chileans are simply not as unhappy with Socialist President Michelle Bachelet\u2019s administration as the right wing insisted<\/a>. Conservatives have criticized Bachelet\u2019s controversial changes to education and tax policy<\/a> as unpopular and wrong-headed. But it now seems like headlines were more negative on Bachelet\u2019s reforms<\/a> than voters were.<\/p>\n

A third hypothesis blames a far-right candidate, Jos\u00e9 Antonio Kast, for Pi\u00f1era\u2019s weak performance. He unexpectedly challenged Pi\u00f1era from the right by appealing to Christian values<\/a>, Pinochet nostalgia and anti-immigration sentiment. Kast, who is the uncle of Ev\u00f3poli Party head Felipe Kast, got 7.9 percent of votes.<\/p>\n

After celebrating his fourth-place finish, which many believe \u2013 or fear \u2013 could lead to a new far-right movement to form in Chile, Kast quickly endorsed Pi\u00f1era<\/a>. Most of his supporters will almost surely vote for Pi\u00f1era in the second round.<\/p>\n

Still, that\u2019s not enough to ensure victory. Political wisdom teaches that runoffs are decided in the center<\/a>, but to win over moderate conservatives, Pi\u00f1era would have to adopt somewhat more liberal positions. He cannot do that without alienating his emboldened right flank.<\/p>\n

To be sure, Pi\u00f1era\u2019s 14-point lead over Guillier still makes him the favorite to win Chile\u2019s presidency. But what was presented as fact is now just probability. Reflecting this new uncertainty, the Chilean stock market dropped six points<\/a> the day after the election.<\/p>\n

The leftist puzzle<\/strong><\/p>\n

If Pi\u00f1era\u2019s position is uncertain, so, too, is his opponent\u2019s. Guillier represents the ruling center-left New Majority coalition, heir to the alliance that defeated Pinochet in 1988<\/a> and subsequently governed Chile undefeated for two decades.<\/p>\n

Fourteen points is not an insurmountable gap, but beating Pi\u00f1era will require complex negotiations within the left<\/a>. Carolina Goic, who finished fifth with 5.8 percent as candidate of the declining Christian Democratic Party, has already pledged her allegiance to Guillier.<\/p>\n

The progressive Marco Enr\u00edquez-Ominami, a progressive outsider who did well in the 2009 presidential election<\/a>, has also swung his 5.7 percent of first-round voters over to Guillier.<\/p>\n

But to win, Guillier needs Beatriz S\u00e1nchez\u2019s 20 percent, or 1.2 million voters. Her left-wing Broad Front Party has said it will not join Guillier\u2019s coalition, but many of S\u00e1nchez\u2019s ardently anti-right-wing<\/a> supporters will back Guillier anyway.<\/p>\n

The question is whether S\u00e1nchez and other Broad Front leaders will encourage the rest of their electorate \u2013 many of whom see Pi\u00f1era and Guillier as just flip sides of the same neoliberal coin \u2013 to support Guillier, the more leftist of the two.<\/p>\n

\"TheThe Broad Front, a party founded just over a year ago, now holds the key to Chile\u2019s political future. Chilean politics have officially entered the realm of the unknown.<\/p>\n

Crist\u00f3bal Bellolio<\/a>, Adjunct Professor, Universidad Adolfo Ib\u00e1\u00f1ez <\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

This article was originally published on The Conversation<\/a>. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It took some time, but it seems Chile has finally entered a new political era. For 27 years after the end of Augusto Pinochet\u2019s dictatorship, politics in this South American country were dominated by the same faces. The generation that, starting in 1990, led Chile through one of the world\u2019s most celebrated democratic transitions stayed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":6399,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[192],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polity-governance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6398"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6398\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6400,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6398\/revisions\/6400"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}