{"id":6106,"date":"2017-06-22T16:53:05","date_gmt":"2017-06-22T20:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6106"},"modified":"2017-07-08T16:55:06","modified_gmt":"2017-07-08T20:55:06","slug":"trumps-hawkish-cuba-order-will-damage-us-influence-in-latin-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/?p=6106","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Hawkish Cuba Order Will Damage Us Influence in Latin America"},"content":{"rendered":"
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From thaw to chill? EPA\/Rolando Pujol<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Donald Trump has issued a directive to tighten travel and business restrictions on Cuba. He is effectively reversing Barack Obama\u2019s efforts to \u201cnormalize\u201d relations with the island; at a rally in Miami<\/a>, he said that \u201cI am cancelling the last administration\u2019s completely one-sided deal with Cuba.\u201d<\/p>\n

The directive isn\u2019t quite that extreme: it leaves in place some of Barack Obama\u2019s changes, including an open embassy in Havana<\/a>. But contra Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica first\u201d foreign policy mantra, his move will have ramifications well beyond the Florida Straits \u2013 and it will probably damage Washington\u2019s influence in Latin America.<\/p>\n

The US has maintained an economic embargo<\/a> against Cuba since 1960. While the blockade was codified into law by Congress<\/a> in 1996, when it comes to calibrating its implementation, the executive branch enjoys considerable leeway.<\/p>\n

On that basis, this move smacks of hypocrisy and political expediency. In September 2015, Trump \u2013 who himself is alleged to have violated<\/a> the embargo by attempting to do business in Cuba in the 1990s \u2013 said<\/a> that \u201cthe concept of opening with Cuba is fine\u201d. But by the end of the campaign, he was sounding a confrontational message. When Fidel Castro died shortly after the election, Trump tweeted<\/a> that he would \u201cterminate\u201d the agreement struck in 2014.<\/p>\n

His new directive makes it harder for Americans to travel to Cuba while restricting the ability of US firms to operate in the Cuban economy. That hardly serves the US\u2019s aims. The Havana government\u2019s pro-market reforms, though slow to take hold<\/a>, have created new incentives for American businesses; US companies could lose<\/a> more than US$6 billion in revenue over the next four years as a result of the tightened restrictions. The cruise and airline industries could shed thousands of jobs.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, a majority<\/a> of Cuban-Americans now support engagement with Cuba, and national polls show growing support<\/a> for an end to the embargo.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, with his legislative agenda otherwise stalled<\/a> and his ban on travel from several majority-Muslim countries repeatedly blocked<\/a> by the courts, Trump is desperate for accomplishments. As with his withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement<\/a>, Trump is playing to his base by rolling back Obama\u2019s legacy wherever he can.<\/p>\n

The move to strengthen the embargo will certainly be well-received in some conservative circles, as key Cuban-American powerbrokers continue to push for a policy of retribution. Marco Rubio, who sits on the Senate committee investigating Trump\u2019s Russia ties, was the driving force<\/a> behind the new rules, along with Republican Representative Mario D\u00edaz-Balart.<\/p>\n

Trump claims to want a \u201cbetter deal\u201d with Havana, but the Cuban government will not negotiate over issues of sovereignty. The emphasis on Cuba\u2019s human rights record in Trump\u2019s speech<\/a> was particularly ironic given the notable absence of human rights concerns<\/a> in his broader agenda. Though the decision was made with a domestic audience in mind, it will have ramifications throughout the Western hemisphere.<\/p>\n

Losing influence<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Obama administration\u2019s rapprochement with Havana was part of a wider attempt to grapple with the political realignment<\/a> of the Americas more generally. In the 2000s, Latin America moved away from the US\u2019s geopolitical orbit, as countries in Central and South America began challenging the US on a host of issues, from trade to the \u201cWar on Drugs\u201d. Obama\u2019s foreign policy was meant to shore up the US\u2019s hegemony<\/a> in its traditional \u201cbackyard\u201d, and \u201cnormalizing\u201d relations with Cuba was clearly a crucial step.<\/p>\n

The embargo was, and is, vehemently opposed across Latin America, and Cuba\u2019s contested status impeded multilateral diplomacy on a range of initiatives. Several countries threatened to quit the Summit of the Americas<\/a> if Cuba wasn\u2019t included. The island\u2019s longstanding exclusion from the Organisation of American States<\/a> fueled the creation of new institutions, such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States<\/a>, which in turn undermined Washington\u2019s influence. As Obama adviser Benjamin Rhodes<\/a> said in spring 2015, the embargo was isolating the US rather than Cuba.<\/p>\n

Combined with Trump\u2019s anti-Mexico rhetoric<\/a>, the tightened embargo signals a return to a more coercive policy toward Latin America. The risks that would carry are already becoming clear. Trump\u2019s Cuba reversal coincided with a Central American security summit<\/a>. Colombia reportedly responded to his Miami speech by threatening to pull out<\/a> of the summit altogether, signaling that the Cuba about-face could create serious rifts with longstanding allies.<\/p>\n

\"TheThis would be a terrible waste on all fronts. Better bilateral relations have allowed the US and Cuba to address matters of mutual concern<\/a>, from drug trafficking to money laundering. Trump\u2019s scorn for this pragmatic approach sends a clear message. His bullying might win the White House a news cycle and earn some kudos on the right, but it will damage Washington\u2019s standing in a crucial region \u2013 one that\u2019s already increasingly independent of the US\u2019s power.<\/p>\n

Rubrick Biegon<\/a>, Associate Lecturer, Politics and International Relations, University of Kent<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

This article was originally published on The Conversation<\/a>. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump has issued a directive to tighten travel and business restrictions on Cuba. He is effectively reversing Barack Obama\u2019s efforts to \u201cnormalize\u201d relations with the island; at a rally in Miami, he said that \u201cI am cancelling the last administration\u2019s completely one-sided deal with Cuba.\u201d The directive isn\u2019t quite that extreme: it leaves in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":6107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[189],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borders-commerce"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6106"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6106\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6109,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6106\/revisions\/6109"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6107"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinamericasecurityreport.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}