Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party was elected Mexico’s first female president on Sunday in a landslide. She defeated Xóchitl Gálvez of the National Action Party and Jorge Máynez of the Citizens’ Movement party, both of whom conceded. Also on Sunday, Mexicans voted for more than 20,000 local, state and congressional candidates, and the ruling party is projected to have also won both chambers of Congress. What are the biggest challenges facing Sheinbaum when she takes office on Oct. 1? What are the main initiatives she is likely to push, and to what extent will her policies differ from that of her predecessor and mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador? How well will she be able to work with Mexico’s Congress, and with other countries, including the United States?
Rebecca Bill Chavez, president and CEO of the Inter-American Dialogue: “Critics often label Claudia Sheinbaum as a ‘carbon copy’ or ‘puppet’ of AMLO, suggesting her sexenio will mirror his populist policies and authoritarian approach to governing. While Sheinbaum shares key aspects of AMLO’s vision for Mexico, dismissing her as incapable of independence sadly echoes common gender stereotypes that undermine women in leadership and are often inaccurate. In fact, Sheinbaum’s record as mayor of Mexico City reveals a leader who can diverge from AMLO’s approach and implement distinct policies, which we saw most clearly in her approach to security, the energy transition and the pandemic. Take Sheinbaum’s approach to the urgent challenge of public insecurity. Unlike AMLO, who embraced the failed policy of militarization, Sheinbaum focused on strengthening Mexico City’s civilian police force through growth, modernization and professionalization. However, withdrawing the armed forces from civilian roles faces significant challenges. AMLO’s administration has deeply embedded the military in the Mexican economy, granting it control over infrastructure projects, airports, seaports and customs operations. This entanglement complicates any efforts Sheinbaum might make to demilitarize these sectors and law enforcement more generally. One of the greatest outstanding questions is whether Sheinbaum will strengthen the democratic institutions AMLO sought to dismantle, including the independent electoral commission and the judiciary. Which direction she chooses is a critical question not just for Mexico but also for the United States, given Mexico’s importance as the United States’ largest trading partner and its role as an indispensable stakeholder on fundamental issues such as democracy, illicit trafficking, nearshoring and immigration.”
Andrés Rozental, member of the Advisor board, president of Rozental & Asociados and former deputy foreign minister of Mexico: “In addition to the presidency, voters gave Morena and its coalition partners a qualified majority of legislators in both houses of Congress, which will result in AMLO being able to pass constitutional amendments in the new Congress before he leaves office. Morena also swept most of the nine governorships that were in play and kept its hold on Mexico City. Sheinbaum faces all the same problems Mexico has had during AMLO’s presidency: a stagnant economy, extraordinary levels of violence in many of the country’s states, a highly polarized society with an increasing presence of organized crime and the ever-present issue of relations with the United States. Whether her policies will differ fundamentally from those of her predecessor is an open question. During the campaign, Sheinbaum was indistinguishable from López Obrador, but once she assumes office we don’t really know what her specific priorities will be, nor how much influence the former president is likely to want to have on her. With both houses of Congress comfortably in the hands of Morena and its affiliated parties, Sheinbaum will have no problem passing her legislative priorities. I expect that one area in which the president-elect might differ from López Obrador is in Mexico’s relations with other countries, especially with the United States. The 2026 revision of the USMCA is already on the agenda in all three North American countries, and the bilateral issues of migration, violence and drugs will be ongoing concerns in Mexico’s relations with Washington.”
Viri Rios, Mexico City-based scholar and public policy expert: “Sheinbaum’s landslide victory can be attributed to López Obrador’s labor and social policies, which significantly benefited the Mexican working class. Her mandate is to maintain and expand these policies. For the United States, this is positive news because Sheinbaum is likely to prioritize strong trade relations due to the importance of the export economy for well-paying jobs in Mexico. Additionally, she will likely enforce a restrictive immigration policy toward Central America to protect the Mexican labor market from an oversupply of labor. Finally, she will need to combat organized crime to maintain economic stability. Overall, this means that despite her alignment with the Latin American left, Sheinbaum’s agenda will primarily focus on maintaining a strong relationship with the United States. Regarding concerns about autocratization, while risks exist due to her support for some of AMLO’s controversial reforms, including the popular election of Supreme Court judges and electoral authorities, other factors will limit her power. Throughout her six-year term, Sheinbaum is expected to face institutional constraints such as the required revocatory referendum, potential internal party fragmentation and possible popularity backlashes.”
Arturo Sarukhán, board member of the Inter-American Dialogue and former Mexican ambassador to the United States: “We’ve just been reminded of what a state-run election in the glory days of the PRI’s decades of one-party rule looked like in Mexico. In what has been a relatively free but blatantly unfair election (López Obrador consistently violated electoral laws by throwing untold resources—including the proverbial kitchen sink—behind his party’s candidate), Sheinbaum will now have to start answering some big questions, most notably, whether she will be able to—and be willing—to wean herself from the long shadow López Obrador will cast over her and the country after Oct. 1, and become her own woman. Paradoxically, if Morena does indeed achieve a supermajority in Congress (a likely scenario in the lower house and potentially, if defections from the PRI occur, in the Senate), that will be harder to pull off. Moreover, it now has a majority of governorships to ratify constitutional reforms if the Senate approves them. This is not encouraging and will be challenging as Mexico seems doomed to continue down the slippery slope of democratic erosion. Sheinbaum will also face demands from voters to tackle violence and public insecurity, the main issue driving voter concerns, as well as a tightening fiscal situation in the coming year, which could constrain the unconditional cash handouts that have been the hallmark of López Obrador’s tenure and one of the main reasons for the big success Sunday in the polls. The stakes could not be higher for a Washington that has been turning a blind eye.”
Arantza Alonso, senior analyst for the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft: “Sheinbaum will have to face an epidemic of crime and violence fueled by organized crime groups, which has left over 170,000 people dead from 2018 through March 2024. Extortion, kidnappings, disappearances, shootings and targeted killings are frequent, particularly in territories where criminal groups are battling over turf and profitable businesses such as fuel and cargo theft. With more than half of the employers surveyed by the Mexican Employers’ Confederation last year saying they had been victims of a crime, business leaders are increasingly concerned about organized crime and the extra costs it imposes. The next president will also inherit the country’s largest fiscal deficit in over three decades, as well as significant financial challenges including popular yet costly welfare programs and, most importantly, state petroleum company Pemex. Without a concrete solution to Pemex’s finances, neither external market sentiment nor the credit ratings agencies are convinced of Sheinbaum’s fiscal credentials. Her main proposal—to kick the can down the road by refinancing Pemex’s upcoming debt obligations—is unlikely to wash with investors, given Pemex’s equally deep structural issues. Morena’s landslide victory means Sheinbaum will be able to fully implement her agenda, increasing her chances of maintaining strong social support. However, this also means there will be fewer checks and balances, increasing institutional and regulatory risks for business. We expect that Sheinbaum will attempt to maintain decent relations with other countries, particularly with the United States, and to focus on achieving a revision of the USMCA in 2026 that is beneficial for Mexico.”
– The Latin America Advisor features Q&A from leaders in politics, economics, and finance every business day. Published courtesy of The Dialogue.
